U.S. equities opened higher Wednesday after a brutal two-day chip-led selloff, but the bounce has faded fast — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have slipped back into the red mid-session ahead of Micron's make-or-break earnings report after the bell. Oil is in free fall as the US-Iran peace framework accelerates, with WTI sliding toward $70 a barrel and erasing the war premium that dominated energy markets for months. The tape is twitchy, VIX is elevated, and everyone is sitting on their hands waiting for Micron to either validate or shatter the AI demand narrative tonight.
→ Micron (MU) earnings after the bell tonight: analysts are looking for ~$35.75B in revenue and ~$20.83 EPS. Watch the guidance and any commentary on HBM (high-bandwidth memory) demand from hyperscalers — this will set the tone for the entire semiconductor complex tomorrow.
→ PCE inflation report Thursday morning — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. With markets now pricing a 68% probability of a September rate hike under Chair Warsh, a hotter-than-expected print could send yields surging and pressure growth stocks into the weekend.
→ Oil and Hormuz developments: WTI is testing multi-month support near $70. Any breakdown below that level or any fresh geopolitical escalation in US-Iran talks could generate outsized volatility in energy, the dollar, and broader risk assets into the close.