US equities are staging a firm rebound to kick off the final two days of Q2, with the Nasdaq leading the charge higher as tech recovers from last week's brutal selloff. Two macro catalysts are driving the move: the Supreme Court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, affirming Fed independence, and the US and Iran agreed to stand down and resume peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. All of this sets up a packed holiday-shortened week culminating in Thursday's June jobs report.
→ JOBS WEEK: Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report is the week's marquee event — moved up from Friday due to the July 4th holiday closure. Markets are pricing it as a key input for the Fed's rate path under Chair Kevin Warsh, with inflation still running near 4% and a ~80% probability of a December hike priced in.
→ IRAN TALKS IN DOHA: US and Iranian officials meet Tuesday. Any breakdown in negotiations could reignite geopolitical risk and send crude sharply higher; a constructive outcome could push WTI back toward the $65–$67 range and further ease market anxiety.
→ QUARTER-END REBALANCING: Today and tomorrow mark the final two trading days of Q2. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional managers may still be executing rebalancing flows that add volatility — particularly in tech names that have seen outsized moves this quarter.