Wall Street is bouncing back to start a holiday-shortened week after a brutal five-day losing streak. Two catalysts are driving the bid: reports that the US and Iran agreed to halt weekend Strait of Hormuz strikes ahead of Doha peace talks Tuesday, and a Supreme Court ruling blocking Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook — at least for now. Tech is leading the charge, though chip stocks are mixed and Bitcoin remains under pressure below $60K.
→ Doha peace talks Tuesday: US and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Qatar to discuss the Strait of Hormuz and a broader conflict resolution framework. Any breakdown could spike oil prices sharply; a meaningful deal could send them lower and boost risk sentiment heading into the holiday week.
→ June Nonfarm Payrolls — Thursday (moved up from Friday): The big macro event of the week drops a day early due to the Fourth of July market closure Friday. Markets are pricing an ~80% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, making this jobs print critical. A hot number strengthens the hawkish case; a miss could trigger a dovish repricing.
→ Chip stock bifurcation: Micron fell ~8% Monday on profit-taking after last week's strong earnings, while Nvidia, AMD, and Intel were rising. Watch whether the sector can find its footing — the Nasdaq slumped 4.5%+ last week largely on semiconductor weakness, and Goldman's AI data center basket is still up ~60% YTD.