Today is the last trading day of Q2 — and it hasn't been a pretty quarter for tech. US futures are pointing to a muted open as Wall Street wraps up a month where the S&P 500 shed ~3% and the Nasdaq lost over 6%, even after Monday's relief rally. The dominant macro story remains the US-Iran conflict: peace talks resume in Doha today, crude is pulling back toward $70, but Iran's foreign ministry has accused the US of ceasefire violations — keeping geopolitical risk firmly on the table. For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
→ Doha peace talks (US-Iran): Iran has said it won't meet directly with the US delegation. Any breakdown — or breakthrough — will move oil prices fast and ripple into equities and bonds.
→ Thursday's June Nonfarm Payrolls report (released early due to the July 4 holiday week): The bond market closes Friday. May NFP came in at 172,000; expectations are for a softer June. With the Fed pricing in rate hikes (first move ~62% probability in September), this number matters enormously.
→ Nike earnings after the close today: First major consumer read of the earnings season. Watch for commentary on tariff impacts, consumer health, and China sales — relevant well beyond just the footwear sector.
→ JOLTS Job Openings data due shortly after today's open: April printed a robust 7.6M. A hot May reading would reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative and pressure rates higher.
→ Quarter-end rebalancing flows: Today is the last day of Q2. Large pension and sovereign wealth funds may be selling equities and buying bonds to rebalance — expect potentially choppy, volume-driven price action into the close.