Wall Street is handing back some of its record-setting Q2 gains to open the third quarter, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no rate guidance and a chipmaker selloff dragged on tech. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both in the red mid-session after their best quarter since 2020, while the Dow and Russell 2000 are holding modest gains on broadening participation. Investors are digesting a weaker-than-expected ADP jobs print and watching US-Iran peace talks in Doha closely — with oil stubbornly hovering near $68, down roughly 30% this quarter.
→ Fed speakers throughout the afternoon: Any hint of a September rate hike timeline from FOMC members could accelerate the bond selloff and rattle equities into the close. The 10Y yield holding near 4.47% is already applying pressure to valuations.
→ Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls (Friday markets closed for Independence Day): After today's soft ADP print, the stakes for the official jobs number are elevated. A big miss could revive rate-cut hopes; a beat would cement the hawkish case and likely push yields higher.
→ SpaceX (SPCX) inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 takes effect at the open on July 7 — JPMorgan estimates ~$4.3B in passive inflows. Watch for pre-positioning in the name and any volatility in Nasdaq-100 components that may get trimmed to make room.