US equity markets are closed today, Friday, July 3, in observance of Independence Day — NYSE and Nasdaq are both dark as July 4 falls on a Saturday this year, with the holiday observed a day early. Thursday's final session before the long weekend told a split story: the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high while the Nasdaq sold off sharply on chip-sector weakness. Markets reopen Monday, July 6, with a packed macro and sentiment agenda waiting.
→ Monday open volatility — three days of accumulated headlines hit the tape at once. AI and semiconductor stocks (Nvidia, AMD, Micron, AMAT) are the key read on whether Thursday's tech selloff was a rotation or the start of a deeper de-rating of the AI trade.
→ Fed policy trajectory: with September hike odds now near 50/50 and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling no urgency to hike, next week's Fed communications and any CPI-adjacent data will be closely scrutinized. Inflation still running at 4.2% YoY (May CPI) keeps the Fed in a delicate spot.
→ US-Iran peace talks resumption post-Khamenei funeral (funeral runs through July 9) — any breakthrough could send oil materially lower and further ease inflation fears, a potential tailwind for both bonds and rate-sensitive equities.