US equity markets are closed today in observance of Independence Day, but the world didn't get the memo — global stocks are broadly higher, with Europe hitting fresh 52-week highs and Asian shares rebounding sharply. The catalyst: Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000, badly missing the ~113,000 consensus and cooling near-term Fed rate hike fears. Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded ~1.1% in holiday trading, while WTI crude hovers near multi-month lows as the Strait of Hormuz reopening continues to flood the market with supply. Market data is latest available and may be delayed.
→ FOMC MINUTES (July 8): The first major macro event of the holiday-shortened week. Markets will parse the Fed's internal debate on the rate path — especially whether the 57,000 June jobs print shifts the balance toward a prolonged pause. Fed Chair Warsh's 'no forward guidance' posture makes every data release and minute that much more market-moving.
→ ISM SERVICES PMI (July 6): The first hard data drop when Wall Street reopens Monday. With ISM Manufacturing already at an expansionary 53.3, a strong services number could reignite rate hike fears and reverse some of this week's bond rally. A weak print would further entrench the soft-landing narrative.
→ SPACEX NASDAQ 100 INCLUSION (July 7): SpaceX formally joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, a milestone that could drive significant passive fund flows into the stock. Shares are already up ~6% this week after entering the Russell 1000. Watch for incremental buying pressure from index-tracking ETFs at the open Monday and Tuesday.