After the market close, U.S. Central Command confirmed a second round of strikes against Iran aimed at degrading its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping, with WTI crude rising an additional 2.2% in after-hours trade to top $75/barrel following a 4.4% surge during the regular session. President Trump declared the June MOU ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara and threatened further military action, while Iran warned of a large-scale retaliatory operation against U.S. bases in the region. The escalation — which also saw the Treasury revoke Iran's oil sanctions waiver — raises acute risks for global energy supply and inflation heading into Thursday's session, with the IMF already warning oil prices could rise ~32% in 2026.
→ Any confirmed Iranian retaliatory strikes overnight against U.S. bases in Bahrain or Kuwait — a direct hit would likely send oil above $80 and equities sharply lower at Thursday's open.
→ Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings Thursday morning — management commentary on fuel hedging and forward bookings amid renewed Middle East tensions will be critical.
→ Fed minutes from the June meeting drop Thursday — markets are pricing ~50% odds of a September rate hike; any hawkish tilt combined with oil-driven inflation fears could compound equity weakness.
→ Strait of Hormuz shipping threat level: the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center has raised its assessment to 'severe' — watch for any closure or major incident overnight.