Markets closed sharply mixed Wednesday after President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara, warning of further strikes tonight. WTI crude exploded more than 4% higher while the Dow shed over 575 points — but chipmakers saved the Nasdaq, which eked out a rare gain on the day. FOMC minutes released Wednesday afternoon confirmed what hawks feared: a few Fed officials saw a case for raising rates at the June meeting, reigniting September hike bets just as a Middle East energy shock threatens to push inflation higher.
→ OVERNIGHT IRAN ESCALATION: Trump's post-close comments and resumed US strikes mean Thursday's pre-market could open to a very different geopolitical landscape. Watch Strait of Hormuz shipping reports, crude futures, and any Iranian retaliatory action against US bases in the Gulf. A significant escalation could send oil well past $80/bbl and spike the VIX sharply higher.
→ THURSDAY EARNINGS — PEPSICO & DELTA AIR LINES: Two bellwethers report Thursday morning. PepsiCo (PEP) will offer a read on consumer spending and input cost pressures amid elevated oil prices. Delta Air Lines (DAL) is critical — jet fuel costs are spiking in real time and any guidance cut on margins will hammer the entire airline sector, which has already been pressured by the conflict.
→ TREASURY YIELDS & SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE ODDS: With FOMC minutes confirming hawkish internal debate and oil now surging again on fresh conflict, watch the 10-year yield closely Thursday. The 4.50% level is key resistance. If yields push above it meaningfully, expect rotation out of rate-sensitive growth and real estate sectors. CME FedWatch September hike odds — currently near 50–58% — are the single most important number for equities right now.