US stocks are edging higher Thursday morning as investors lean back into the AI trade and oil prices pull off their Wednesday spike highs, even as the US-Iran conflict keeps escalating. The US military struck roughly 90 targets across Iran overnight, and Tehran responded by hitting US-allied Gulf states — yet Wall Street is shrugging off the worst of it, at least for now. Buckle up: the situation on the ground is fluid, and Strait of Hormuz risk is nowhere near priced out.
→ Geopolitics, hour by hour: With the US and Iran actively exchanging strikes and Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes under threat, any headline on escalation or de-escalation could move oil — and by extension the broader market — sharply. Iran's funeral procession for former Supreme Leader Khamenei adds another dimension of political uncertainty inside Tehran today.
→ Weekly jobless claims & June existing home sales: Both data points drop today and will give markets a fresh read on the labor market and the rate-sensitive housing sector. Existing home sales already came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.09M units — a 2.4% monthly decline, missing expectations of a slight gain. Jobless claims will be parsed closely given elevated rate fears.
→ SK Hynix US debut & CPI next week: SK Hynix prices its US offering Thursday with demand running at 7x oversubscribed — a real-time barometer for how hot the AI chip trade really is. Then eyes shift to July 14: June CPI + Fed Chair Warsh testimony + the start of major bank earnings season. That combo could reset the entire macro narrative for the summer.