US stocks rose modestly as SK Hynix's US listing tested the AI memory trade and investors monitored ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. The Dow gained 0.3%, while the S&P 500 also rose 0.3%, with the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.2%. SK Hynix opened at $170 on the Nasdaq, rising about 14%, with the ADRs priced at $149, raising $26.5 billion for expansion plans.
→ Q2 earnings season kicks off next week with major financial institutions—consensus calls for S&P 500 earnings growth of ~22% YoY
→ Fed rate hike expectations: Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike by the end of 2026, while the probability of a move at the September meeting currently stands at around 64%.
→ Oil and geopolitics: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations continuing despite recent escalation. Watch for supply disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz.