US stocks opened strong on Monday as Big Tech led gains and oil prices retreated following diplomatic easing between Washington and Tehran. The Nasdaq outperformed with gains above 1.4%, while earnings season kicks into high gear this week and the labor market remains under the microscope.
→ Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report—critical test of labor market health before Fed's September decision; market pricing 64.5% odds of rate hike.
→ Semiconductor earnings (Micron, Broadcom this week) for AI capex validation; any disappointment could temper the tech rally mid-session.
→ Treasury curve behavior: 10Y pulling back but mortgage/credit costs still elevated at 4.7%; watch if yields stabilize or resume climbing into earnings season.